| 05 May 2010
As much of a die hard Suns fan as I am, I can also be a rationalist by separating out that which is practical and prudent and that which is just wishful thinking as a fan. Tonight's line on the game is Suns -3. Remember my discussion last time about the home team typically getting about 6 points. This means Vegas expects bettors to bet more on the Spurs all things being equal. But they aren't equal, the Suns have home court. This will sway the betting slightly in the Suns favor.
Get it?
Well anyway, I am figuring things like an normal bettor would figure them tonight. The Spurs will be throwing everything they have against Los Suns, including any kitchen sinks they may find. Which may well give the Spurs their best value of the series. Tonight's money line is Suns (-150), Spurs (+130). That means, every hundred dollars bet on the Spurs without the spread will pay back $230. For a game that I figure is a coin toss, them's pretty good odds.
Please click "Read More" to continue reading--
Would I bet against my Suns? Not in real life. I figure I am too emotionally invested to bet on them and I hate to bet against them, but I do like to speculate. Let's get back to that series bet. Since the Suns won the first game, the line has changed even more in the favor of the Suns and now stands at Suns (-190), Spurs (+170). If only I had placed that imaginary bet after the first game, I'd be getting more value for my dollar. Of course, that was before the Spurs were in the 1-0 hole.
Should I bet again to take advantage of such a good line? Why not? It's all imaginary anyway. Let's assume now that I have $1000 at +115 on the Spurs from the before the first game, and now I'll put another $1000 on the Spurs at +170. With any luck this will continue to jinx the Spurs, but since I don't believe in jinxes I guess I am out of luck on that score.
While I'm making imaginary bets, put me down for $10000 (the typical Vegas limit for a nobody Joe Schmoe like myself) on the Lakers to take their series. Now that the Lakers are up 2-0 the line is Lakers (-1000), Jazz (+700). The Lakers aren't going to lose that series, betting $10k to win $1k is a no brainer. (For someone where money is no object. Don't forget that assumption! Most of us can't afford that kind of risk! No matter the odds.)
All the silly imaginary bets aside, I'm looking forward to tough hard fought game tonight. I really do think the Spurs are going to come out guns blazin', or the defensive equivalent, whatever that is, stone wallin' maybe. I don't know.
I do know it's going to be a great game!
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|
