| 25 March 2010
Come to think of it, third will do...
Last Thursday for my inaugural post I posted some nonsense about hoping the Suns stay right where they were in the standings. At the time, the Suns were tied in the loss column (all such comments will refer to the loss column in this post) for 6th/7th and a full three games behind the tied 2nd/3rd seeds, Denver and Dallas. The top eight teams in the west had all won at least seven of their last ten, and with 12-14 games to go there just didn't seem like there were a lot of possibilities for the Suns to move up into the second or third slots. Thus avoiding playing the Lakers in the second round.
What a difference a week makes.
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Denver loses three in a row. The Mavs drop one. Oklahoma drops a pair in a row. Every seed loses in the west save for the Lakers, the Jazz, and our precious Suns. Phoenix is now in sole possession of 5th, one game behind a tied for 3rd/4th Denver/Utah Northwest division leading pair, and two games behind Dallas, the sole owner of 2nd, and probable Southwest division winner.
As I said last week, my goal for Phoenix was to finish as a 2nd, 3rd, 6th, or 7th seed. Let's do a little speculating into this liklihood, shall we?
If Phoenix walks into a sole possession of either 2nd or 3rd I'll be tickled pink or any other manly color you choose in lieu of pink, like salmon for instance. Tiebreaks are where things really start to break down for Phoenix. As I said last week we lose the head to head with Dallas, but even if we won it, we'd still lose it.
Why?
Because being a division winner trumps all tiebreaks, and Dallas is going to take the Southwest with ease. Also, assuming Dallas holds on to the second seed. A tie between Phoenix and Utah or Phoenix and Denver for the 3rd/4th seeds goes to the division winner, i.e. Utah or Denver. Denver is looking pretty good even if the Suns win on April 13th against them to take the head to head 3-1. A season ending three way tie between Denver, Utah, and Phoenix goes to Denver because Denver already owns the head to head against Utah (3-1) for the division. Thus beating Phoenix in the tiebreak by virtue of winning their own division. So a three way tie for 3rd - 5th works against the Suns. They'll be forced into the fourth or fifth seed based on what happened in Utah in the last season game on April 14th to create the tie. Suns will be fourth seed and have home field advantage against Utah with a win. Fifth seed and playing the first game of the series in Utah with a loss.
So if I want the Suns to get out of their current position and into one of those coveted positions that avoids the Lakers until the conference finals. Phoenix has to earn the position outright. Most likely, this is the third seed. To get this honor they are going to have to make up two games in the loss column on both Denver and Utah.
Can they do it with 11 games left?
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